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Real-time · AI · Walk-forward verified

ORACLE

Gradient-boosted signals on real market data. Triple-barrier labels, purged K-Fold CV, walk-forward backtests. Verified by Deflated Sharpe and Probability of Backtest Overfitting.

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EQUITY
α vs SPY
SPY —
DD FROM PEAK
no peak yet
TODAY SIGNAL
TCA SLIP
unmeasurable
LAST CRON
PAIRED MULTI-SEEDHANSEN SPABOOTSTRAP CIWALK-FORWARDKILL-SWITCHREAL DATA ONLYALPACA PAPERMOMENTUM-126PIT SURVIVORSHIPRETRACTION-FIRSTLIGHTGBMTRIAL REGISTRY
PAIRED MULTI-SEEDHANSEN SPABOOTSTRAP CIWALK-FORWARDKILL-SWITCHREAL DATA ONLYALPACA PAPERMOMENTUM-126PIT SURVIVORSHIPRETRACTION-FIRSTLIGHTGBMTRIAL REGISTRY
PAIRED MULTI-SEEDHANSEN SPABOOTSTRAP CIWALK-FORWARDKILL-SWITCHREAL DATA ONLYALPACA PAPERMOMENTUM-126PIT SURVIVORSHIPRETRACTION-FIRSTLIGHTGBMTRIAL REGISTRY
PAIRED MULTI-SEEDHANSEN SPABOOTSTRAP CIWALK-FORWARDKILL-SWITCHREAL DATA ONLYALPACA PAPERMOMENTUM-126PIT SURVIVORSHIPRETRACTION-FIRSTLIGHTGBMTRIAL REGISTRY
Signal01

Momentum-126. The one strategy that survived.

4 challengers killed by the paired multi-seed gate (storm shield, PEAD, insider cluster, sector momentum). Only plain 6-month momentum on SP500 cleared the bar — and only after the survivorship-corrected re-gate confirmed it (PIT Sharpe 0.71, down from 1.04 on the naive panel).

SP500
Universe
Execution02

Marketable-limit + kill switch. No trade bypasses the checks.

Orders route as marketable-limit at NBBO mid ± 50 bps with extended_hours so the bot never queues for the open auction. A daily-loss + drawdown auto-flatten kill switch SELLS the entire book on -3% intraday or -10% peak drawdown. Conviction sizing × inverse-vol × ¼-Kelly, vol-targeted.

Sprint 0
Live exec path
Reliability03

Triple-schedule cron. No more skipped trades.

GitHub Actions silently dropped 6 scheduled runs in two weeks. Fixed via 3 different non-round-hour cron schedules + a Vercel-cron triggered workflow_dispatch + idempotent client_order_id hashing so a same-day double fire dedupes at Alpaca.

≥5 daily fires
Independent triggers
Rigor04

Hansen SPA + bootstrap CI. Every kill ships with the gate numbers.

Paired multi-seed t-test, stationary block bootstrap, n_trials-corrected Deflated Sharpe, Holm-Bonferroni multi-test. Every retraction is committed to retractions.json with the date, the p-value, and the git SHA. No silent kills.

SPA + DSR + BS
Promotion gate
Architecture

Every layer, accounted for.

Risk
01 / 6

Pre-trade gate

Kill-switch · position caps · drawdown · max-positions.

Orders
02 / 6

State machine

Pending → submitted → filled / cancelled / rejected. Idempotent.

Signals
03 / 6

Ranked daily

Top-K per universe, ordered by rank then confidence.

Streaming
04 / 6

Alpaca IEX → SSE

Reconnecting WS consumer, Redis pub/sub fan-out, 15 s heartbeats.

Backtest
05 / 6

Walk-forward

Equal-weight top-K, bps cost model, Sharpe + drawdown + DSR.

Data
06 / 6

Real providers

11 APIs keyed. Canonical Postgres. Zero synthetic paths.

The Rule

No fake data.

No synthetic paths.

Real providers. Real markets.

Verified by deflated Sharpe.

Or it does not ship.

By the numbers

The shape of the build.

Measured from the commit log, not the pitch deck.

185
Unit tests · green
11
Real provider feeds
718k
Rows real OHLCV · Alpaca
100%
Type-checked · mypy --strict
0
Synthetic data paths
[ LIVE BOOK · streaming ]
MOMENTUM-126

Today's active book.

Real open positions on the Alpaca paper account, ranked by market value. Every 30 seconds from /api/signal-today. Zero synthetic paths.

RUN THE ORACLE

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Self-hostable. Stateless API. Postgres 16 + Redis.
Built by Shaurya · no fake data · brutal honesty by default.
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